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United States’ Economic Progression Likely to be Distracted by War Fears in Europe

The strength in the job market reported by the Labor department may push the Federal Reserve to further raise interest rates at its next policy meeting in May, according to the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell; U.S central bank must move expeditiously to raise rates and possibly more aggressive to keep high inflation from becoming entrenched.

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U.S Retail Sales; Early-Kick Off Amidst Inflation and The Shadow of Omicron

Retail sale is an economic indicator in the United States that keeps inventory of the demand for finished goods, by measuring the purchases of durable and non-durable goods over a defined time. It is the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of the overall economic activities.
The year kicked off with gains across virtually all retail sectors, U.S. retail sales excluding auto increased 7.2% year over year, with online sales growing 10.4% compared to this time last year, even with the shadow of Omicron and elevated inflation, consumer spending was sustained by pent-up savings, wage growth and continued reopening of the economy.

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Non-Farm Payroll; United States’ Economy Crawling Back to Normalcy from the Scars of Omicron Virus

The non-farm payroll (NFP) report is a key economic indicator for the united states. It is intended to represent the total number of paid workers in the U.S excluding farm employees, government employees, private household employees, and employees of non-profit making organizations. The report is released every first Friday of a new month by the Bureau of labor statistics and is among the most market-moving data points for US Dollars, US equities, Treasuries, and Gold.
The strength of the economy last year stood in stark contrast to the collapse in activity in early 2020, but also speaks to the success of both the public and private sectors in quickly adapting to the unprecedented challenges created by the pandemic, that being said, potential headwinds still exist, as the global risks associated with COVID-19 pandemic persist.

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Canada overnight rate; Bank of Canada More likely to Dance to Hawkish Hymn

The Overnight Rate is the interest rate at which major financial institutions in Canada borrow and lend overnight funds among themselves.
Short-term interest rates are predominant factors in currency valuation. This is highly correlated with the economic outlook as its changes can impact both inflation and recession.
Two years into the COVID-19 pandemic, government responses still have gaps that fail to include some small businesses hit hardest by lockdowns and renewed restrictions tied to the Omicron wave, as Canadian restrictions to tackle COVID-19 will likely come at a cost of slower economic growth at the start of the year than other developed economies, notwithstanding that has not stopped investors from raising bets on interest rate hike.
With the Bank of Canada set to be the first major central bank to hold its first policy meeting of 2022, Experts are expecting an interest rate rise of at least 25 basis points to 0.5% which has remained at 0.25% after it was lowered from 1.75% in March 2020, as Senior economist Jean-Francois Perrault believes central Bank of Canada could be forced to act sooner than anticipated and forecast rate to hit 2% by the end of 2022.

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United States Retail Sales; Massive Holiday Sales, With E-commerce Racking up Gains

The United States economy is booming even though collective anxiety levels remain uncomfortably high as still elevated levels of COVID-19 cases and deaths have kept the virus a central consideration for many households, as consumers are no longer receiving stimulus money, and inflation is at its highest in decades.
Despite concerns about supply chains, inflation, and the pandemic, fundamentals are generally strong, and households have continually proved resilient in their spending over the past few months. Consumer expectations about the labor market are decidedly optimistic, and Americans have accumulated wealth via stimulus and asset holdings over the past couple of months.

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United States Retail Sales; Consumers’ Confidence to be Influenced by Omicron Variant

Retail sale is an economic indicator in the USA that keeps inventory of demand for finished goods, by measuring the purchases of durable and non-durable goods over a defined time. It is the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of the overall economic activities.
The state of the COVID-19 pandemic has determined the course of the economy since it was first discovered in March 2020, the economy has grown more resilient to the effect of the virus, as it’s clear that consumer behavior, not government restrictions had the greatest effect on economic outcomes.

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Australian Cash Rate; Virus Risk Likely to Influence Decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia last month held its Official Cash Rate at 0.10% after it was changed to 0.25% in the month of November 2020, as early glimpses of a rising rate appear more likely, of which Philip Lowe, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia is currently using to spur wage rises and help return inflation to its target rate of 2% to 3%. As it is widely expected to see the bank scale back the weekly pace of purchases from the current A$4 billion (2.8 billion) amid an improved outlook, supply constraints in the local bond market, and signs that the Federal Reserve will quicken its taper decision.

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United States Non-Farm Payroll; Economic Recovery Hanging on a Pendulum as the Market views Omicron Virus in a Rear Mirror

The non-farm payroll (NFP) report is a key economic indicator for the united states. It is intended to represent the total number of paid workers in the U.S excluding farm employees, government employees, private household employees, and employees of non-profit making organizations. The report is released every first Friday of a new month by the Bureau of labor statistics and is among the most market-moving data points for US Dollars, US equities, Treasuries, and Gold.
The economic recovery in recent months has been marvelous even though it has been based on the anticipation that the world would be able to keep ahead of the virus which appears to have resurfaced again in the last few days.

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United States Retail Sales; Inflation and Supply Constraints Key Factors

Retail sale is an economic indicator in the USA that keeps inventory of demands for finished goods, by measuring the purchases of durable and non-durable goods over a defined period of time. It is the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of the overall economic activities.
United States retail sales for the month of October stood at 0.7% compared to the forecast of -0.2%, although fears that supply constraints could disrupt the holiday shopping season amid a continued shortage of goods.

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United Kingdom official bank rate; Rate hike likely amidst Subtype of the Delta variant

Official Bank Rate is the interest rate that the Bank of England (BOE) pays commercial banks for reserve account deposits. This operation provides a bulk of liquidity to the banking system as short-term interest rates are a paramount factor in currency valuation, which is highly correlated with the economic outlook because its changes can affect both inflation and recession. The expectation for November 3rd meeting is that the BOE will deliver a 15-basis points rate rise to 0.25% given the heightened concerns over inflation, although the risk is that the BOE will not match the hawkish expectations priced in, given that money markets are currently looking for the most aggressive tightening cycle.

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New Zealand Unemployment Rate; Delta variant more likely to impact Employment figures.

The New Zealand Unemployment Rate is the percentage of the total workforce in New Zealand that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. It is a lagging indicator, meaning that it generally rises or falls in the wake of changing economic conditions.
New Zealand rebounded strongly from a recession last year, largely due to its success in eliminating the coronavirus within the borders and reopening its domestic economy well before other advanced nations. The country had been virus-free for months until an outbreak of the highly infectious Delta strain in August.

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